Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. De Minaur

Medvedev making his fifth appearance in the prestigious year-end event

Daniil Medvedev, the defending US Open champion, reached the final last year and the semi-finals in 2020. The Russian has a 9-4 win-loss record at the ATP Finals and played the most matches on the ATP Tour this year (78-25).

He finished the round-robin stage with a 1-2 record last year before beating world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. However, Medvedev lost to Alexander Zverev in the final (6-4, 6-4).

This year, Medvedev qualified for the ATP Finals when he won his second Grand Slam title at Roland Garros in June. Subsequently, he reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon and the quarter-finals at the US Open.

De Minaur has no wins in two previous ATP Finals appearances

De Minaur is making his third appearance at the ATP Finals. The Australian reached the semi-finals on his debut in 2019 but lost all three of his round-robin matches last year.

De Minaur qualified for this year's event after a strong season in which he won two titles (Sydney and Atlanta) and reached the semi-finals at the Australian Open.

The Australian has a 12-9 record on indoor hard courts this year but has never beaten a top-five opponent on the surface.

Head-to-head record and prediction

Medvedev and De Minaur have met three times on the ATP Tour, with Medvedev winning twice. Their most recent meeting was in the semi-finals of the Australian Open earlier this year, which Medvedev won in straight sets (6-3, 6-3, 6-4).

Medvedev is the clear favorite to win this match. He is a former world No. 1 and has a much better record on indoor hard courts than De Minaur. The Russian is also in better form, having reached the final of the Paris Masters last week.

However, De Minaur is a dangerous opponent. He is a great fighter and has the ability to beat anyone on his day. If he can raise his level and play to his potential, he could cause an upset.

Prediction: Medvedev to win in three sets.